NCSU vs. FSU

My breakdown of the upcoming prime-time showdown of two ACC Atlantic Foes!

Matchups

FSU Passing attack vs. NCSU Secondary: 
The passing game for FSU has been a work in progress all season long. A mixture of Ponder being hurt as well as just not playing very well, and lack of a breakaway threat in the receiving corps, has required the Noles to rely on the running game. The Packs secondary, if I recall correctly, replaced 3 starters. They have Seniors on their depth chart and the starters are all underclassmen (3 sophomores and 1 freshman). There just isn't a clear edge here, although I would say the player to watch out for is sophomore receiver Rodney Smith. He's tall and has very fast straight line speed, and the clear weakness is the middle of the field for the NCSU secondary.
EDGE: Push

FSU Rushing attack vs. NCSU Linebackers:
The season's results for Florida State don't lie. Before the Boston College game, there were 4 straight games in which the Noles put up over 200 rush yards each game (including 298 against Miami). Nate Irving is far and away the Wolfpack's best defender, but other than that, the Pack is ranked 58th best in the FBS against the run. I see a clear advantage for FSU. The Noles possess three top running backs in Jermaine Thomas, Chris Thompson, and Ty Jones, and these three guys would be starters at any other program at least in the ACC.
EDGE: FSU

FSU O-Line vs. NCSU D-Line:
Another edge to FSU, I believe. The experience of this O-Line is just very hard to come by. All are 3 (some are 4) year starters. There are 3 that will make some money playing on Sunday's, including All-ACC and probable All-American guard Rodney Hudson. The film I have seen of the NCSU D-line is impressive, but against suspect competition. There isn't a player on that squad with polished technique, State's line has been mostly effective because of gap assignment. The one big thing to be said about the matchup for Thursday is the injury to guard David Spurlock. Brian Stork, a freshman showed some promise at BC, and luckily will not go up against a stellar D-Line this time around, but being at a hostile environment on a Thursday night, there could be a false start or two.
EDGE: FSU

NCSU Passing attack vs. FSU secondary:
This is the biggest question of the night for me. Russell Wilson is having a very good season. His 9 interceptions keep me from using language like "great" or "Heisman", but hands down is playing better than any other QB in the ACC right now. The NCSU receivers have good size and depth, but not great. It might seem a mismatch upon first glance, but the FSU secondary has matched up against bigger receivers very well all season. Wilson put up impressive numbers against the Seminoles secondary last year, in the 45-42 shootout, but faces a totally different beast this year. The FSU secondary, somehow, is ranked 20th in the Nation. Now I'm not anointing them as great or anything like that, but after last year, an off-season of house cleaning and implementation of a new system, and 4 new starters, it really has to make you scratch your head. Greg Reid has the most game experience from a year ago, but isn't the best player in this secondary. That honor goes to Xavier Rhodes. Or Nick Moody; or maybe Terrance Parks? My point is, going from playing a throwback man coverage system to a revolutionary 2-under zone scheme, along with 4 new starters, this secondary has been scary good so far, with 2 more years with the same starters.
EDGE (slight): NCSU

NCSU Rushing attack vs. FSU Linebackers:
Coming in at no.83 in the nation, State's run game isn't going to give the Seminoles nightmares like it use to. Mustafa Greene is averaging over 5 yards per carry, but is a freshman, and has not faced a linebacking corps as athletic as the Noles. Simply put, Kendall Smith and Mister Alexander have had breakout seasons. The FSU linebackers have become feared in the ACC, just ask Miami. There isn't much else to say, the lateral speed that the Seminole backers possess will be a nightmare (for the scrambling QB as well) and I don't see State putting up more than 70 rushing yards.
EDGE: FSU

NCSU O-Line vs. FSU D-Line:
Russell Wilson has been sacked 17 times. The NC State O-Line has three new starters, and hasn't helped produce good numbers. They have good size, with all of their guys over 300 pounds, but are kind of slow off the line and don't really have a conventional body of work seeing as Wilson rolls out a lot. It's very hard to judge this group because the 17 sacks are far from 100% their fault. On the flip side, Brandon Jenkins has been simply outstanding for a rejuvenated Seminole defensive line. Rejuvenated might be the understatement of the year, though. The aforementioned Jenkins has 39 solo tackles for loss out of a total of 59 TFL for the defense. The push up front by the D-Line has just been ridiculous. FSU leads the nation in sacks, so this looks like a favorable matchup. It still is, but if Wilson stays in the pocket behind his big O-Line, and gets rid of the ball after 3 and 5 step drops, he could find himself on his backside less than he has all season.
EDGE: FSU

To sum it up, FSU seems to have the matchup advantages, but Russell Wilson will probably keep this team in the game single-handedly. NCSU's biggest objective should be to dink and dunk down the field to expose the gaps in FSU's zone coverage. The opportunity for the deep ball has been erased, so it would be unwise for Wilson to float deep balls all game. This game will be closer than the matchup analysis suggests, it will definitely be closer than my score suggests. The FSU defense is the clear difference maker here. If they keep up what they have been doing, State won't score very much. I am going to predict 34-10. I think FSU will rack up over 200 yards rushing and around 200 passing. Ponder will play better, but spend a LOT of time handing the ball off. The scoreline will reflect FSU's ability to eat up clock and score a lot in the second half on bigger runs due to fatigue of the defense.

Whew. I tried to be as unbiased as possible. GO NOLES!!!!!